Siasa ya Marekani juu ya mas-ala mawili ya Palestina na Iran

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بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

 

SWALI

Katika jibu la swali lilopita la 05/02/2017, imefafanuliwa misingi mikuu ya siasa ya Trump kuelekea kutumia “matunda” ya siasa ya Obama katika Syria na hasa kuibuka kwa dori ya Uturuki kwa nguvu katika kuisalimisha Aleppo kwa serikali, na vilevile kuelekea kuidunisha dori ya Urusi. Na vile vile kuelekea Marekani kuipa Uingereza dori kiasi fulani nchini Syria…Lakini kuna mambo mawili hayakutajwa, pamoja na kwamba kauli za Trump zilikuwa kali juu ya mambo hayo! Rais wa Marekani, Trump, siku ya 15/02/2017 alitoa kauli katika mkutano na waandishi wa habari alioufanya pamoja na waziri mkuu wa kijidola cha kiyahudi mjini Washington zinazohusiana na ‘utatuzi wa dola mbili’(two-state solution) kwamba yeye baada ya saa hatoendelea nalo suala hilo. Je Marekani imeliacha suluhisho hili? Na vile vile tangu Trump ashike madaraka ya urais wa Marekani tarehe 20/01/2017 kauli za Trump kuelekea Iran zimekua kali na kuifanya hali tete zaidi kuelekea upande(wa Iran). Je haya ni katika mabadiliko ya siasa ya Marekani kuelekea upande wa dori ya Iran baada ya kuwa dori hii ni kuitumikia Marekani katika eneo? Walakash-shkru.

JIBU:

Tutachunguza mas-ala haya mawili yaliyotajwa ili ibainike kwetu rai yenye nguvu katika mas-ala hayo mawili kwa idhini ya Allah.

LA KWANZA: MAUDHUI YA PALESTINA AU VILE WANAVYOIITA KADHIA YA MASHARIKI YA KATI:

1-Hakika maneno ya kauli alizozitoa rais wa Marekani Trump kama zilivyonukuliwa na vyombo vya habari vya kimataifa na kieneo vyote na kama zilivyonukuliwa hewani moja kwa moja ni : “Rais wa Marekani Donald Trump Jumatano aliandika mtzamo mpya katika siasa ya Marekani kuelekea mashariki ya kati baada ya kuthibitisha kwamba suluhisho la dola mbili sio njia pekee ya kumaliza mzozo wa Izrail-Palestina, akiashiria kwamba yeye yuko wazi juu ya badili(kadhaa) ikiwa zitapelekea kwenye amani.  Na walikuwa marais wote waliopita wa Marekani wakililinda suluhisho la dola mbili, wakiwa ni kutoka Republican au Democrat”(France 24, 16/02/2017). Na akasema “Naangalia sulhisho la dola mbili na suluhisho la dola moja (…), ikiwa Izrail na Wapalestina watafurahi nami nitafurahi kwa (suluhisho) ambalo wanatalipendelea. Masuluhisho yote mawili kwangu ni sawa”(Aljazeera live,16/02/2017).

Na suluhisho la dola moja ambalo Marekani imelitaja kwa mara ya kwanza katika kinywa cha Trump, Trump hakufafanua, kuwa je ina maana kuwapa Wapelestina utawala wa ndani katika dola moja ya kiyahudi?! Au ina maana dola ya kisekula kwa kushiriki Wapelstina katia uongzi wa dola ya kiyahudi, jambo ambalo linafanana na mpango wa Muingereza ambao Uingereza iliudhihirisha mwaka 1939 ilipotoa ‘kitabu cheupe’ cha muktadha wa Lebanon? Ikieleweka kwamba mpango wa suluhisho la dola mbili ni mpango wa Marekani yenyewe ambao iliudhihirisha tangu mwaka 1959 wakati wa rais wa Republican Eisenhower na ikafanya kile kinachoitwa jumuia ya kimataifa iukubali, na ikatupa suluhisho la dola moja ambalo lililetwa na Uingereza.

Na vyovyote vile iwavyo, jambo linalodhihiri kwa mwenye kuzingatia kauli hizi na vidokezo vyake  ni kuwa Marekani haijauacha mpango wake wa suluhisho la Dola mbiili, kwasababu balozi wa Marekani katika Umoja wa Mataifa Nicky Healy alithibitisha kwa kusema: “Awali ya yote, suluhisho la dola mbili ambalo tunaliunga mkono. Mtu yeyote anayesema kwamba Marekani haiungi mkono suluhisho la dola mbili, hili litakuwa ni kosa… Kwa msisitizo tunaunga mkono  suluhisho la dola mbili, lakini pia tunatafakari nje ya boksi…na ni jambo linalohitaji kuzishawishi pande mbili hizi kuja kwenye meza(ya majadiliano) na ndio tunalolihitaji ili tuzifanye ziwafikiane” (Reuters, 16/02/2017).

Hili linathibitisha kwamba Trump hajaliacha suluhisho la dola mbili. Na hii ndio siasa ya siasa ya Marekani iliyojifunganayo idara zote tangu tarehe ile tuliyoionesha. Lilipo ni kwamba alitaka kujaribu mbinu nyengine ya shinikizo, kwasababu balozi wake katika umoja wa mataifa amethibitisha kuwa nchi yake imeshaika suluhisho la dola mbili, isipokua yeye alifikiria kutumia mbinu nyengine. Au kuna marekebisho Marekani inataka kuyapitisha juu  ya suluhisho la dola mbili ili adhihirike mwenye mvuto zaidi kwa Mayahudi. Na balozzi ametaja kwamba wanfikiria nje boksi, yaani ameufanansha huu machakato na boksi ambapo ilikuwa nchi yake ikizikusanya pande mbili ndani ya boksi ili kulifanyia kazi suluhisho(la dola mbili). Na anataka kutumia mbinu nyengine kwa kuzidisha au kupunguza mambo mengine yanayohusiana na suluhisho(hili la dola mbili) ili liwe na mvuto kwa wadau hasa mayahudi…

Na tofauti za mbinu hili jambo lipo. Tulitaja katika jibu la swali  18/11/2016 kuhusu siasa ya Trump baada ya tangazo la ushindi wake kwamba hakutokua na mabadiliko katika misingi ya ya siasa za marekani isipokuwa katika misingi tu. Tulisema “Ama kuhusu kubadilika kwa siasa za Marekani katika mambo ya msingi yaliyokuwepo katika kipindi cha rais ilyetangulia, kwa hakika misingi mikuu haitarajiwi kubadilika. Ni mbinu ndizo ambazo zinaweza kubadilika. Kwani serikali ya Marekani inaongozwa na asasi kadhaa na kila moja ina nguvu amabazo huzidi au hupungua. Kwa mfano, rais na ofisi yake, Pentagon, Congress, Baraza la usalama wa taifa,na idara za usalama… Zote hizi zina ushawishi katika kuhifadhi misingi mikuu ya siasa za Marekani kwa namna thabiti ijapokuwa hutofautiana katika mbinu…”

2-Mamlaka ya Palestina imeonyesha kushangazwa na kustushwa.Alisema Saeb Erekat, mapatanishi wake mkuu na wayahudi kwa muda mrefu na katibu wa kamati kuu ya PLO “Tunaamini kwamba kuharibu suluhisho la dola mbili si suala la utani lakini ni maafa na msiba kwa kila mmoja Wayahudi na Wapalestina”(Huffington Post, 16/2/2017). Na akasema Erekat: “Badili(jambo jengine) pekee la suluhisho la dola mbili ni nchi moja ya kidemokrasia na haki sawa kwa wote Waislamu, Wakristo na Wayahdi” (Aljazeera,16/2/2017)

Mamlaka na wakereketwa wake hawaelewi ila suluhisho zinazotolewa makafiri wakolni. Ikiwa si suluhisho la Marekani la dola mbili, basi itakuwa ni kurejea kwenye suluhisho la Muingereza la zamani au linalofanana nalo chini ya utawala wa Yahudi. Na inadhihirika kuwa Marekani haijawasiliana na mamlaka(ya Palestina) na wakereketwa wake kuhusu mipango yake. Na wao ni wa mwisho kujua kwani hawana thamani yoyote kwao. Kwasababu (Marekani) injaua kwamba watanyenyekea na watafuata. Kwani mwenye kutoa 80% ya ardhi yake na akaridhia kuwa awe mlinzi wa waporaji na kuwapiga watu wake katika njia ya kumlinda adui wao. Kwa hiyo huzingatiwa kuwa wa chini kabisa kupewa thamani. Hubweka kama mbwa kwa anaemtupia mfupa!

3-Ama msimamo wa kijidola cha Wayahudi, ijapokuwa waziri mkuu wake Netanyahu amemuomba rais wa Marekani na hata kwa kusaidia kwake kijidola(cha Wayahudi), lakini hakutaja chochote kuhusu mpango wa suluhisho la dola mbili katika mkutano wake na waandishi wa habari pamoja na Trump, kwa hali hiyo inadhihirika kwamba yeye hana raha kutokana na kauli za Trump. Kana kwamba kuna mambo alitakiwa na hakuridhika nayo akaona bora asiyataje ili asiondoe matarajio ya wafuasi wake Mayahudi waliyokuwa nayo kwa Trump… Na ni wazi kwamba matakwa yake hayakufanikiwa na hakutak kudhihirisha hilo (Na aliulizwa Netanyahu kama aliigusa kadhia ya Golan akajibu “Ndio” Na alipoulizwa kuhusu jibu la rais wa Marekani, Netanyahu alisema; si semi kwamba alistushwa na ombi langu na hakuongeza ufafanuzi zaidi” (Reuters Arabic, 16/2/2017).

Na wala si kuuhamishia ubalozi wa Marekani Al-quds kama alivyoahidi katika kampeni zake za uchaguzi. “Trump alisema siku ya Jumapili kuwa mawasiliano ya simu na Netanyahu yalikuwa “mazuri, na hayo ni katika hotuba baada ya White House kufichua kwamba ipo katika “hatua za awali” za mazungumzo illi kutekeleza ahadi ya rais ya kuuhamisha ubalozi wa Marekani ndani ya Izrail kutoka Tel Aviv kwenda Al-quds. Na msemaji wa White house, Sean Spicer, akaeleza katika tamko “Tuko katika hatua za mapema mno katika mazungumzo ya suala hili”. Na akasema kuwa hakuna tangazo la karibu kuhusu kuhamisha ubalozi, amabayo ni hatua itakayolipua ghadhabu zinazotarajiwa katika ulimwengu wa Waarabu.(Sky News Arabic, 22/1/2017).

Netanyahu akaona bora atie mkazo kuupiga vita Uislamu unaotishia kijidola cha Wayahudi, akasema: “Waziri mkuu wa Israel Benjamin Netanyahu alithibitisha utayari wake ili kuisaidia Washington kupambana na “Uislamu wa siasa kali” na kuumaliza” (Gulf Online, 15/2/2017)… Wao husema “Uislamu wa siasa kali” kama sababu na kisingizio ili kuupiga vita Uislamu ambao ameuteremsha Allah Mwenye Nguvu na Mwenye Hekima juu ya Mjumbe wake mkarimu(SAW). Uislamu ni ule Uislamu unaofaa kwa kwa tatizo la umma, nao ni haki   (Basi nini baada haki isipokuwa upotevu? Vipi nyinyi mnapotolewa?) Yunus:32

LA PILI: MAUDHUI YA IRAN:

Naam, uongozi wa Trump unatengeneza mazingira tete na Iran, na hili linaonekanwa wazi…Na ili kufahamu malengo ya vitisho vipya vya Marekani kwa Iran na muelekeo na kiwango chake, basi hapana budi kuchunguza siasa ya Marekani kuelekea Iran kabla ya Trump na baada yake ili tuone kama kumetokea mabadiliko na ni maeneo gani:

SIASA YA MAREKANI KUELEKEA IRAN KABLA YA TRUMP:

1-Katikati ya vita vya Marekani dhidi ya Iraki, iliitumia Iran ushawishi wote mpaka ulipomakinika utawala wa Marekani dhidi ya Iraki. Makundi matiifu kwake(Iran) yakawa hayapigani na Marekani katika wakati ambapo majimbo ya kaskazini na magharibi ya Iraki yanawaka moto, (majimbo) ambayo hakuna ushawishi wa Iran humo. Na mipangilio baina ya Marekani na Iran katika Iraki ipo katika nyanja zote na utekelezaji unafanyika kiukamilifu. Na hakuna anaeghafilika na haya ila kipofu… Na pia katika Yemen Iran inawasaidia Houthi. Na wajumbe wa kimataifa wa Marekani (wa zamani Jamal bin Umar na wa sasa Walid Al-Shaykh) ndio wanaojaribu kuliimarisha jukumu lao katika utawala wa Yemen.

Na wao Houthi ndio aliokutana nao waziri wa mambo ya nje Kerry nchini Muscat mwishoni mwa 2016, pamoja na kwamba wao ni kama Iran ambayo hunyanyua miito “Shetani mkubwa”, wao hunyanyua miito “Kifo kwa Marekani”. Basi dori ya Iran nchini Yemen ni dori inayotegemewa na Marekani kikamilifu… Na nchini Syria picha iko wazi kuliko jua, kwa kule Iran yeye mwenyewe na wanamgambo wake kumpa mwega Bashar, na muungano wa kimataifa wa Kimarekani unayashambulia mapinduzi nchini Syria na wala hawashambulii ISIS tu, kwa hakika wanashambulia kwa mabomu makundi kadhaa na kuua viongozi wao. Yote hayo chini ya kisingizio cha ugaidi. Na ndege za Marekani hazishambulii kundi la Iran la Kilebanon(Hizbullah) ijapokuwa kijeshi linainishwa kigaidi.

Basi dori ya Iran nchini Syria ni sehemu ya siasa ya Marekani…Kisha Marekani – Obama ametia saini makubaliano ya  nyuklia ya Iran pamoja na nguvu za kimataifa Juni 2015. Marekani ilitaka kulegeza vibano, uzito na vikwazo dhidi ya Iran ili iweze kutekeleza mahitaji yanayongezeka kwa ajili ya siasa ya Marekani katika eneo(Mashariki ya Kati) na hasa baada ya mapinduzi ya “Vuguvugu la Warabu” na kuiwezesha Iran kusafirisha nje mafuta yake na kufanya matumizi kwa ajili ya mahitaji ya siasa ya Marekani nchini Yemen, Syria na Lebanon…Na hivi ndivyo mambo yalivyo, basi yale yaliyokuwa yakisikilikana kaika kauli za Marekani dhidi ya Iran tangu mapinduzi ya mwaka 1979, na kauli kali zaidi za Iran dhidi ya Marekan, akaiita “Shetani Mkubwa”, yote hayo ni maneno yanayopeperushwa na upepo. Matendo na siasa za kiutekelezaji zenye kuratibiwa kikamilifu baina yao vina ukweli zaidi kuliko vitabu vya kauli na maneno yachoshayo. Na siasa hufahamika kutokana na vitendo na si kauli tu.

2-Uongozi wa Obama umekwenda mbali zaidi kuliko uongozi wowote mwengine wa Marekani tangu mapinduzi ya Iran katika kuiachia Iran juu ya nchi zilizoizunguka. Kikadhihiri kile kilichokuja julikana kuwa “Dori ya Iran” nchini Yemen na Syria na zaidi pia Irak na Lebanon. Na kwa kuzingatia Marekani kuiongezea na kuipa umuhimu dori ya Iran tutagundua kwamba hayo yalikuwa yamesukumwa na misukumo ya Washington ya zamani na ya mipya, kama ifuatavyo:

(A) MISUKUMO YA ZAMANI: Nayo ni kuifanya Iran izidishe vitisho kwa mataifa ya Ghuba ili Marekani idhibiti visima vya mafuta. Na huu ndio mtazamo wa kale wa Marekani kwa dori ya Iran, ilikuwa ni kuimakinisha Marekani kwa kutia mguu  katika Ghuba, yaani kwenye visima vya mafuta. Lakini kwasababu ya uvamizi wa Irak dhidi ya Kuweit mwaka 1990, Marekani imepata sababu zisizokuwa Iran kuiunganisha kwenye visima vya mafuta kwahiyo Marekani imeweza kuutumia uvamizi huu kwa kuweka kambi zake za kijeshi katika nchi kadhaa za Ghuba. Kwahiyo vitisho vya Iran vimetoweka kwa Marekani kutokua na haja navyo katika upande wa mafuta.

Baada ya kupata uongozi wahafidhina mambo leo nchini Marekani katika kipindi cha Bush mtoto na uvamizi wa Marekani dhidi ya Irak mwaka 2003 misukumo ya zamani ya Marekani imerudi kuisukuma Iran, lakini mara hii ni kwa kiwango cha chuki za kimadhehebu. Na hayo ni kwa kuzingatia mipango ya Marekani katika kurejesha mchoro mpya wa mipaka ya Sykes – Picot kwa kuzirarua nchi kivitendo juu ya msingi wa kimadhehebu hata zikibakia zipo kiumbo. Marekani ikazungumza kuhusu ramani mpya ya Mashariki ya Kati. Na Iran ikaanza kuyaunga mkono makundi ya kimadhehebu kwa ajili ya kupata mipaka mipya iliyochorwa kwa damu kwa ajili ya ramani za kimadhehebu za Marekani kwa Mashariki ya Kati. Na mipaka ya kimadhehebu ikadhihiri wazi wazi nchini Irak, kisha ikafka Yemen, Syria,Lebanon,Saudia, Bahrain, Pakistan, Afghanistan na nyenginezo, baada ya kuwa Iran imenyanyua mwito wa “Jamii ndogo”, yaani ilikuwa inatekeleza siasa ya kuhifadhi jamii ndogo inayopigiwa debe na Marekani. Na hapa ndipo ilipodhihiri dori ya Iran kwa kasi.

(B) AMA MISUKUMO MIPYA NA YA DHARURA, ni “Vugugu la Warabu”, Marekani imejikuta yenyewe mbele ya jambo la kujitosa(hatari) na jipya. Ghasia za vugugu la Warabu zimezuka ghafla nchini Tunisia, Yemen, Misri, Libya na Syria, na Marekani haikua ni yenye matayarisho ya kulinda ushawishi wake mbele ya mapinduzi haya ya raia ambayo yalitishia kuvunja ushawishi huo. Na Marekani haiwezekani kutuma jeshi lake kulinda ushawishi wake kwasababu ya kile ilichokipata jamii ya Marekani kuhusu uzito(wa vita vya) Iraki. Na haina jeshi la kieneo ambalo linaweza kulinda ushawishi wake kiukamilifu,

basi vibaraka wake muhimu zaidi katika eneo – Misri na Syria wakawa chini ya moto wa machafuko na mapinduzi. Kwahiyo Marekani ikakuza misukumo mipya ya dharura kwa haraka ya kulazimika kuitegemea Iran kwa kiasi kikubwa, na Iran ikazuka ikashambulia mapinduzi nchini Syria hasa na inazidi kukitia nguvu chama chake cha Lebanon ili kuzuia mapinduzi yasiivunje Lebanon pia baada ya matukio ya Tripoli na Sidon. Na ikazidi kuwatia nguvu wafuasi wake katika Bahren na Yemen ili kufikia ushawishi wa Marekani humo kwa matumizi ya Marekani. Yote haya ni kutokana na hali halisi ya mapinduzi.

na kwa misukumo hii mipya ya Marekani, dori ya Iran yenye  maumbile ya kimadhehebu imekuwa kubwa na ya kutisha sana katika eneo. Na siasa hii ya Marekani imepelekea kudhihiri ukuruba wa wazi wa Marekani – Iran. Vyombo vya habari vimezungumzia juu ya usafirishaji wa fedha kwa ndege kwenda Iran baada ya maafikiano ya nyuklia, mikataba ya kibiashara na kampuni ya Boeing, kukutana kwa maofisa wa Marekani na mabenki ya Ulaya ili kurahisisha miamala na Iran na kuondoa khofu za mabenki kutokana na vikwazo vya Marekani…

3. Na kwa kurejea Saudia katika milki ya Marekani baada ya kufa Abdallah aliye mtiifu kwa Muingereza na kuchukua utawala kibaraka wake Salman na mwanawe nchini Saudia mwaka 2015, na kuchukua  Al-sisi urais mwaka 2014 wamepata nguvu vibaraka wa Marekani katika eneo na imepata uwezo wa kulinda ushawishi wake bila ya Iran pia. Huu ni upande mmoja… Na upande mwengine Marekani imeona udhaifu wa Iran,

kwa sababu haikuweza pamoja na wanamgambo wake wote na walinzi wake na msaada wake kuvunja nguvu za mapinduzi ya Syria, Marekani sasa ikaivuta Urusi kwenda Syria lakini Urusi haikua badili ya dori ya Iran bali ni kuitegemea. Yote haya yamefungua muono kwa Wshington kufikiria aina kadhaa za nyenzo za siasa zake. Na kwamba kuitegemea kwa nguvu sana na namna fulani ya kipekee Iran haikua na athari…

Na kwa kukaribia mwisho utawala wa kipindi cha pili cha Obama funguo za kudhibiti mapinduzi ya Syria zilikua zinakusnyika kwa Uturuki Marekani ikazikusanya siasa mbili ya usambaratishaji, kwa “Iran na Urusi” na siasa ya udhibiti, kwa “Uturuki” ili kuvunja nguvu ya mapinnduzi ya Syria. Kisha dori ya Saudia kuwaliwaza wapinzani Riyadh!

Hivi ndivyo ilivyo, basi dori ya Iran katika eneo ni siasa ya Marekani iliyopangwa kwa uthabiti. Na dori hii hutanuka na kunywea  kulingana na matakwa ya siasa ya Marekani na kulingana na dhurufu. Na tangu mwaka 1979 Marekani imekua ikiihifadhi Iran kama ni kitisho “Cha kimapinduzi kwa guo la Uislamu” dhidi ya nchi (zote) za eneo. Kisha hayo yakapanuka kuwa “kitisho kikubwa cha kimadhehebu” baada ya kupata utawala wahafidhina wapya Marekani, kisha ikawa “dori muhimili ya kieneo” ambayo ina uzito wake dhurufu za vuguvugu la Warabu. Lakini iliporejea afya kwa baadhi ya vibaraka wa Marekani wengine mfano nchini Misri, au kurejea kwa utawala katika mkono wake kama nchini Saudia, au kuwa uwezekano wa kuitumia kama Uturuki, Marekani inatafuta dori nyengine kando na dori ya Iran bila ya kuiacha hiyo(Iran).

Na inapasa kusema kwamba dori ya Iran katika eneo ni kama dori ya vibaraka wengine wa Marekani, na haiwakilishi ushawishi wa kikweli wa Iran na wasiokua Iran katika wafuasi wa Marekani. Na Marekani huzidisha na kupunguza dori hizo bila hata kuzingatia maslahi ya nchi hizo… Kwa mfano Iran inatumia kwa ajili ya Syria karibu na kuimaliza hazina yake bila ya kuangalia miundo mbinu yake inayochakaa, na inaelewa kwamba inawezekana Marekani kumaliza dori yake nchini Syria itakapoona haiihitajii tena!

Na vilevile Marekani imezaa dori ya Saudia nchini Yemen ambayo imeiudhi sana Iran mbele ya wafuasi wake, kwa kule kudhihirika wazi Saudia ndiyo inayotoa msaada wa kijeshi moja kwa moja kwa wafuasi wake, katika wakati ambao Iran imeitambua hasa dori ya Saudia na namna ilivyo na nguvu juu hali ya Yemen na Iran ikawa imedhalilika nyuma ya marikebu ndogo zinazosafirisha silaha kwenda kwa Mahouthi… Na huenda katika kufuatilia dori ya Uturuki nchini Syria na kuanguka kwa mistari mwekundu bali na kubadilika kwa lugha ya kauli zake na misimamo yake ni mambo ambayo yanadhihirisha kwa kiasi gani Marekani katu haiwajali viongozi hawa, inawadhalilisha na kuwachukiza bila ya kupwesa!  Yaani Marekani inazidisha na kupunguza dori ya wafuasi hao(vibaraka) kwa hali endelevu na kulingana na maslahi yake yeye bila ya kuwajali wao.

SIASA YA MAREKANI KUELEKEA IRAN BAADA YA TRUMP:

Katika mazingira haya ya Marekani  kuzipa dori nchi nyengine zisizokua Iran katika eneo, nazo ni Uturuki na Saudia na kudhoofisha dori ya Iran. Katika mazingira haya ndio Trump akachuka uongozi wa White House. Na ilikua inawezekana siasa ya Marekani kuendelea na mbinu zilizotangulia kuelekea Iran bila ya kokoro na kuendelea nchi tatu za kieneo katika kuitumikia Marekani kila moja kulingana na dori yake… Lakini Trump alitaka kushughulisha utisho wa Iran kwa kuiharibu kiuchumi kwa njia ya ‘kimafia’ ambayo inapendwa na Trump,

kwahiyo akawa anachochea hali tete na Iran, akaishambulia kwa njia ya twita (twiter) akaiita kuwa inadhamini ugaidi. Na akaituhumu kuwa ina itisha Marekani na waitifaki wake na akadhihirisha ukeketevu katika kuamiliana nayo. Na akaweka vikwazo zaidi kwa  watu 25 na makampuni nchini Iran tarehe 3/2/2017 baada ya majaribio yake ya makombora. Na akayaelezea maafikiano ya kinyuklia kuwa mabaya , na akadokeza uwezekano wa kuyapitia upya na kuyafuta, yaani kuitoa Marekani kutoka makubaliano hayo. Na hapa ndio baadhi ya watu wakadhani kuwa Trump anafanya mabadiliko makubwa katika siasa za Marekani. Na ili tufahamu mtazamo “mpya” wa Trump kwa Iran na dori yake na kiasi ambacho yawezekana Trump akafanya kwa Iran, tunaachunguza mambo yafuatayo:

1-Kwamba siasa ya Wa-republican inategemea kudhihirisha nguvu na ubabe. Hili liko wazi katika kila kigezo cha siasa za nje za Trump ikiwemo inayohusiana na Iran.

2-Naam, kuna jambo jipya katika mtazamo wa Marekani – Trump kuelekea Iran. Na muktadha wa jambo hili ni kwamba rais Trump aliahidi kutatua mambo mengi ya kiuchumi kwa Marekani. Na alitaka waziwazi mataifa ya ulimwengu yagharamike kwa ajili ya Marekani kwa kule kuyalinda kutokana na hatari, na iliijumuisha hilo jambo jiipya Japan, Korea, mataifa ya Ulaya ya Atlantic (Atlantic Europe) na mataifa tajiri ya ghuba hayakuachwa, bali ndio mawindo mepesi. Na kwa yale yaliyotajwa katika misukumo ya Marekani ya zamani na mipya kuwa imenyanyua umuhimu wa Iran na dori yake katika eneo la ghuba, na kwamba utisho wa Iran katika kipindi cha Obama umekua ni hatari kubwa kwenye milango ya (nchi za) ghuba,

basi hakika rais Trump anataka kuwekeza kiuchumi katika jambo hili na kwa njia ya kimafia. Trump anataka kutia mkononi mapato makubwa ya mafuta kutoka nchi za ghuba kwa kuishinikiza Iran na kudhoofisha dori yake na kwa kuzilinda nchi hizo kutokana na hatari ya Iran. Kwa haya na mbele ya shinikizo hili la Marekani dhidi ya Iran, unaiona(Iran) inafanya majaribio ya makombora mapya. Na haliko mbali(kuamini) kwamba hilo lilikua kwa uratibu kamili wa Marekani na si ghafla tu kusadifiana na wakati, yaani inathibitisha hatari yake kwa mataifa ya eneo(la ghuba) bila ya yenyewe kupata faida kwa hilo, bali mwenye kupata faida ni Marekani ambayo leo inatafuta fedha nyingi kwa kuwalinda watawala kutokana na Iran. Na kauli za Trump katika kampeni yake ya uchaguzi zinathibitisha mpango huu. Na katika kauli ambazo zinaashira “fikira mpya” ya Trump ni haya yafuatayo:

-Ilieleza CNN ya Kiarabu tarehe 19/8/2015 kuwa Donald Trump anaitaka Saudia kutoa mali kuipa Marekani kwa ajili ya kuilinda isisambaratishwe, akasema: “Saudia karibuni hivi itakua katika tatizo kubwa  na itahitaji msada wetu…lau kama si sisi isingekuwepo na isingebakia”.

-Na tukinukuu tovuti ya CNN ya Kiarabu tarehe 27/9/2016, Trump alisema: “Tunailinda Japan. Tunailinda Ujerumani. Tunailinda Korea ya Kusini. Tunailinda Saudia. Tunazilinda nchi kadhaa, wala hazitulipi (kwa hilo) chochote. Lakini inahitajika watulipe kwasababu tunawapatia huduma kubwa na tunapoteza mali nyingi… Yote nisemayo ni kwamba la kulishika zaidi ikiwa wao hawakutoa sehemu yao stahiki…Wanalazimika kujilinda wenyewe au iwalazimikie msaada wetu. Sisi ni taifa lenye deni linalofikia trilioni 20, inawalazimu msaada wetu”. Na Trump akaongeza kwa nguvu umuhimu wa “uwezo wa mazungumzo katika maafikiano ya kimaslahi ya kibiashara”. Akaeleza: “Lazima uwe na uwezo wa mazungumzo na Japan na Saudia. Ninyi ndio munadhania kwamba tunailinda Saudia? Kwa mali zote ilizonazo, sisi tunailinda na wao hawatulipi chochote?”

-Tovuti ya Aljazeera ilisema tarehe 26/1/2017 “Rais wa Marekani alisema kwamba Iraki ilikua inamiliki nguvu zinazolingana na Iran isipokuwa Marekani ilifanya kosa ilipoingia Iraki – katika kuashiria vita ya Marekani dhidi ya Iraki mwaka 2003 – kisha ikazikabidhi kwa Iran, akiashiria kwamba uongozi wa Marekani ulipaswa kusalia huko na kuhodhi mafuta ya Iraki”. Na kama ilivyonukuu tovuti ya Reuters ya Kiarabu tarehe 24/1/2017(Katika hotuba mbele ya maofisa wa CIA Trump alidokeza kwamba Marekani ilipaswa kuchukua mafuta ya Iraki kufidia mzigo wa vita mwaka 2003).

3-Yote hayo yanathibitisha yawezekanayo kuwemo katika akili ya Trump ambayo inatafuta kufanya makubaliano ya kimaslahi, basi badili kwa ulinzi wa vijidola vya ghuba kutokana na hatari ya Iran lazima zitowe gharama za ulinzi huo. Yaani kuweka fedha zake nyingi chini ya matumizi ya Marekani kwa ajili ya kuhifadhi viti vya utawala. Marekani ina amiliana na viongozi hawa kwa kuwachukulia kama ni watoto wadogo. Na akili hii ya kimafia ya uongozi wa Trump inathibitishwa na ushahidi kadhaa…Rais Trump si upande pekee wa Marekani uliojfunga na mapato makubwa ya kimataifa,

Congress ya Marekani imejifunga na sheria ya JUSTA mwaka 2016 katika kipindi cha utawala wa Obama na ikawa inawezekana kwayo kuzuia fedha za Saudia na nchi nyengine za ghuba kwasabau ya vtendo vya “kigaidi”… Na hayo ni kwasababu Marekani ina mizozo ya kiuchumi hasa inayoilazimisha kupunguza bajeti yake kijumla na mbele ya madeni makubwa iliyonayo, na kuinuka kwa uchumi wa China. Ndio ikawa(Marekani) siku zote inatafuta masuluhisho makubwa, ndipo ulipoona uongozi wa Bush mtoto kuwa utatuzi wa kiuchumi ni kuitawala Iraq na kufaidika na mafuta yake,

Lakini upinzani nchini Iraq ulimzuia hivyo, akalazimika kutumia dola trilioni 3 kwa janga la Iraki. Obama akajaribu kupiga kodi murua (tax havens) ya Uingereza ili kuvutia fedha nyingi kutoka visiwa vya mbali kwenda Marekani. Kisha sheria ya JUSTA ikaja ili kupata fedha za kodi na kugharimia “ugaidi”. Na sasa Trump anazitaka nchi tajiri za ulimwengu zilipe mapato ya kimataifa kama ni badili ya kuzipa ulinzi ili kutataua kizungumkuti cha uchumi wa Marekani. Na Trump anagubikwa na ahadi yake ya kutatua deni la Marekani (dola trilioni 20) katika kipindi cha miaka minane!

4-Hakika ya miito aliyokuwa akiimba Trump “Kuirejesha Marekani kuwa dola kubwa mara nyengine” inapelekea Marekani kuingilia moja kwa moja, na kukataa siasa ya Obama kujificha nyuma ya dori(inazowapa) wengine, kama ulivyojaribu uongozi wa Trump katika kauli za maeneo salama nchini Syria ni kurejesha dori yake moja kwa moja kwa kuichukua kutoka Urusi. Na dori kubwa na ya kuogofya iliyopewa Iran katika muktadha huu imekuwa inayofata kutizamwa upya vile vile.

kwa hivyo uongozi wa Trump umefikiri kwa makini katika kupunguza dori ya Iran baada ya kumalizika kwa lengo la kiuchumi katika hilo, lakini bila ya kuwa kutoihitajia ili iwe dori yenye kukamilisha dori ya Uturuki na Saudia na sio kuwa badili yao, yaani haina(Iran) dori ya kuongoza na hasa nchini Syria, bali inarudi chini sana dori yake mbele ya dori ya Uturuki kimsingi na kisha dori ya Saudia. Lakini dori ya Iran inabakia ipo kutumikia mipango ya Mareakni. Basi Marekani haiwezi ikajitosheleza na dori hii katika eneo.

5-Kwa hivyo, hukmu ya mas-ala ya Marekani kubadilisha dori ya Iran haijengwi juu ya kauli na hotuba kama inavyojengwa juu ya vitendo. Kwani makelele leo yanayopigwa na Washington kuhusu Iran mengi hayafikii daraja ya kufanya mabadiliko. Kwa mfano(Alitamgaza rais wa Iran, Hassan Rohani katika hotuba aliyoitoa katika sherehe za kumbukumbu ya 38 ya mapinduzi ya Iran, kwamba Wairan wataifanya Marekani ijutie matamshi ya vikwazo. Rohani akaashiria kwamba kushiiriki kwa Wairan katika kuhuisha kumbukumbu ya “Mapinduzi ya Kiiislamu” ni kuonesha nguvu za kitaifa Nyanja kadhaa nchini. Akielezea kwamba kushiriki huku ni ujumbe wazi unaojibu kauli za viongozi wa White House). (Russia Today, 10/2/2017).

Huku akijibwa na Rais wa Marekani, Trump, kwa kauli yake “Chunga” (Siku ya Ijumaa rais wa Marekani Donald Trump alimwambia rais wa Iran ajihadhari, hayo ni baada ya yale yaliyonukuliwa na vyombo vya habari kuhusu tamko la Rohani kwamba mtu yeyote anayetishia Wairani atajuta. Akasema Trump: “Chunga. Ni bora kwako”) (Reuters, 10/2/2017). Haya na yanayofanana nayo miongoni mwa kauli ni kama yale maafikiano ya nyuklia yote yanaangukia kwenye rekodi yenye kuchosha ya mpambano wa Mrekani – Iran… Ama hali halisi uwanjani ni uratibu, mashirikiano, na utekelezaji wa mipango ya Marekani,

(Mugireny aliwaambia waandishi wa habari baada ya mikutano yake na maafisa wa ofisi ya rais wa Marekani Donald Trump, siku ya tarehe 9 Februari ifuatavyo: “Kwa mujibu wa yaliyosemwa katika mikutano ile nimethibitishiwa azma yao ya kujifunga katika kutekeleza maafikiano ya kinyuklia na Iran kikamilifu”) (Russia Today, 10/2/2017).  Ama vikwazo vipya vilivyowekwa na Mrekani dhidi ya Iran bado viko katika mtazamo mdogo, ijapokua vimewekwa sambamba na kauli zinazoelekeza kwamba Marekani inapitia upya dori ya Iran, lakini inaipitia kwa kuzingatia kuwa ndio siasa yake. Inapitia mafanikio yake na kasoro zake, na vipi itawezekana kuitumia kwa faida ya kiuchumi na kisiasa kwa maslahi makubwa ya Marekani.

Kuipitia upya dori ya Iran si kioja kwa Trump tu, bali mgombea wa Democrat, Hillary Clinton alikuwa akieleza hayo ya kupitia upya katika kampeni zake za uchaguzi. Aliieleza siasa ya “Uaminifu na Uthibitisho” inayoshikwa kuelekea Iran kuwa “Sio siasa nzuri” na kwamba yeye badala yake atategemea siasa ya “Kutoiamini Iran”. Na akaahidi kurejeshwa kwa vikwazo dhidi ya utenguzi wowote hata mdogo wa maafikiano ya nyuklia bali hata kutumia nguvu za kijeshi dhidi yake ikiwa kuna hali ya utenguzi wa maafikiano (Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, 22/3/2016). Yaani uongozi wa Trump kupitia upya dori ya Iran ni siasa ya nchi ya Marekani.

  • Mwisho, ni jambo la aibu kuwa Marekani ambayo inaozeshwa na funza kutoka ndani ambayo ni natija ya hadhi zake fisidifu na hadhara yake chafu. Ni jambo la aibu kuwa hii(Marekani) kuwa na ushawishi katika biladi za Waislamu ikijitapa humo. Na huku wanaojiita wenyewe viongozi wakishindana katika kuitumikia!! Na katika jambo linaloumiza sana ni miji ya waislamu kuwa ndio medani ya mipango ya makafiri wakoloni! Lakini sababu inajulikana, tuliisema na tunairejea… Ni kukosekana kwa Khalifah, kiongozi ambae ni ngao. Kutoka kwa Abuu Huraira, kutoka kwa Mtume (SAW) amesema: “Hakika kiongozi ni ngao. Hupiganwa nyuma yake, na hujikinga kwake”

             Muslim.

Lililowajibu juu ya kila Muislamu anaempenda Allah na Mjumbe wake liwe jambo hili ni la kufa na kupona: Kufanya kazi kwa bidii ya dhati na ikhlas kwa Allah Aliyetakasika na kwa uaminifu pamoja na Mjumbe wake (SAW). Na hilo ni kwa kusimamisha Khilafah Rashida, ithibiti bishara ya Mtume Mkarimu baada ya utawala huu(uliopo) wa kidhalimu, kama ilivyokuja katika hadithi sahihi iliyopokelewa na Ahmad na Twayalisy, na maneno ni ya Twayalisy: Amesema Hudhaifah: Kasema mjumbe wa Allah(SAW): “… kisha utakua (utawala) wa kidhalimu, utabakia mpaka muda autakao Allah. Kisha atauondosha atakapo kuuondosha. Kisha itakua (itarudi) Khilafah kwa njia ya Utume”… Na hapo wapate nguvu na wadhalilike makafiri wakoloni na waihame miji ya Waislamu wende kwenye uti wa mgongo wao kama ukibakia huo uti wa mgongo wao. Na hayo ni masiku tunayoyabadilisha baina ya watu. Na ili Allah awadhihirishe wale walioamini na awafanye miongoni mwenu mashahidi. Na Allah hawapendi madhalimu”

 

26 Jumada1 1438H

23th Feb.2017

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